SPX and COMPQ Updates

Last update noted that several markets were reaching resistance zones, and though SPX moved a bit higher, that remains true (given that these are "zones" and not exact levels).  We can see SPX is still within points of red resistance:

It's worth mentioning that there could be enough waves in place for a correction here... but without any impulsive declines yet, please take that with a grain of salt:

COMPQ also remains in its resistance zone:

In conclusion, not much else to add (to recent updates) beyond that.  We'll see if bears can do anything with this opportunity or if it gets squandered.  Trade safe.

OIL, SPX, COMPQ, INDU Updates

A number of readers have asked me to update oil, since it performed basically as expected since the last time I updated that chart (a year ago).  I've been hesitant because I don't like this pattern one bit... plus I have a ~14-year win streak going on this chart(!) -- and I would hate to mess that up (winks). 

So the two main options that jump out in oil are as noted on the chart:

Next, SPX is back to one of its last remaining resistance zones:

COMPQ has also reached its next potential resistance zone:

Big picture, INDU is still performing in line with a pattern we've been tracking for a year and a half now:

In conclusion, a number of markets have reached potential resistance zones, so we'll see if there's a pause and/or if bears can get anything going, even near term.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Not Surprising, at Least

Last update ended with:

In conclusion, so far, bulls have cleared every level they needed -- which tends to put the burden back onto bears to break those levels, to show they still have remaining firepower.  

But things didn't start there -- I've been warning bears for the past two weeks that things weren't looking great for them, once SPX cleared resistance.  Going all the way back to April 25, when I wrote:

In conclusion, if bears still have gas in the tank, they probably want to mount a defense of these zones.  If they can't, then we should not ignore that

Then on April 28, I wrote:

Since last update, SPX has sneaked over its potential trend resistance lines, so bears have a brief window to reverse this or else they probably need to await an impulsive decline (because the pattern does allow for an ongoing rally if there's no reversal soon)

and

SPX has not gone bears way and they need to be aware of that. They probably need a reversal fairly soon to keep their near-term (and perhaps even intermediate term) hopes alive. 

So anyway, here we are two weeks later, with the market about to gap up big.  But at least that shouldn't be taking anyone by surprise.

Does this mean bulls have the all-clear?  Well, not exactly -- they still have the all-time high to hurdle.  But "nothing good happening for bears" (the past couple weeks) doesn't always mean "bulls are a lock."  It just means there are no indications bears should get aggressive.  Today's open is simply going to be a good illustration of why.

Just two charts today, because there's not much else that hasn't already been said already in recent updates.  NYA first:

And SPX:

In conclusion, as I said earlier, this by no means "guarantees" bulls get new all-time highs -- but until bears see something go their way (i.e.- an impulsive decline; see April 28 warning), there's still little reason for them to be involved.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ Updates

Lots of news since last update.  For starters, Trump's "big announcement" was that we've worked out a trade deal with the UK, so that's really great news for the 79 people who drink Earl Grey tea.  Also, on Wednesday, Jerome Powell announced the launch of a signature line of jarred fruit, called "Federal Preserves."  The hope is that they'll sell a few hundred billion jars this year and thus be able to square the remaining $6.7 trillion on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet.

So this is really bullish stuff, if you haven't been paying attention -- and the charts reflect that.  The market is clearly holding out high hopes for "Federal Preserves." (Don't tell the market that I made those up -- we don't want to cause a crash!)

As we can see on the SPX chart, there hasn't been much for bears to get excited about recently, so they'll now need to sustain trade and closes back below black and blue... though, be warned, at some point, the falling blue trendline (the one that runs from the all-time high to red b and beyond) might get tested (again) from above... and that wouldn't be bearish if it holds.

COMPQ is a bit more ambiguous still -- it has merely rallied back to the upside inflection point I suggested a month ago, but not yet beyond.  So bears can hold out hope for a rejection here:

In conclusion, so far, bulls have cleared every level they needed -- which tends to put the burden back onto bears to break those levels, to show they still have remaining firepower.  Trade safe.

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: One for Da Bears

Last update looked at the bull micro-count, so it's only right to look at the bear micro count in this update.  The bear micro count is for a WXY off what I'm calling the "Trump Tariff Low":

WXYs (when correcting bear waves) consist of three ABCs -- two that trend higher, and an intervening ABC that trends lower.

The bull option remains the same as noted last update:

And COMPQ has, so far, been rejected from its standing upside inflection zone:

Today is, of course, a Fed day, so the market will likely decide the winner between these counts in fairly short order.  Trade safe.

SPX and COMPQ: Two Very Interesting Charts

There are two charts that are really worth looking at today.  The first is COMPQ, which has now bounced all the way from its downside inflection zone to its upside inflection zone -- both of which were drawn on this chart more than a month ago:

The next chart of major interest is SPX.  I've illustrated on this chart that the rally can be counted as an impulse.  As long time readers know, usually when I see an impulse, I'm fairly comfortable calling it out as such and drawing conclusions from it -- but in this case, I'm not at all confident in it, because the preceding pattern is so... odd.  Nevertheless, it's there, and my job is to share what I see.  So here it is:

In conclusion, COMPQ has rallied all the way up to its upside inflection, and SPX is sporting a potentially complete or nearly complete wave (impulse?) -- so we should at least be alert to the potential for a turn lower from this general zone.  In a bear's perfect world, it would be the start of the next major wave down -- but in a bull's perfect world, it would just be wave (2)/B down, and hence only a correction.  We'll watch carefully to see what develops from here.  Trade safe.

SPX, NYA, INDU Updates

A couple hits since last update:

1.  The back-test of the red trend lines occurred.

2.  The April 23 upside target was ~captured.

SPX is in the ballpark of another POSSIBLE resistance zone, but so far, bulls have been lumbering right through all of those.  And that successful back-test of the breakout is not helpful to bears.  Every now and then, though, you will see a successful back-test that leads to one more push which then falters, so it's not a slam dunk just for bulls just yet... but it's still encouraging for them.

NYA is back to its black line:

And INDU has finally gotten on the same page as everyone else:

In conclusion, keep in mind that the most bullish possible pattern here would be a bull nest to new highs.  And while the market isn't quite behaving right for that at the moment (there should be more upside momentum), that can change in a heartbeat.  On the flip side, it does keep open the option that we're dealing with something else -- at least, as of this second, that's an option.  But either way, bears aren't doing anything to get them excited or even really have them do anything other than watch and wait for an impulsive turn -- again, at least, for now.  Trade safe.