SPX, NYA, INDU Updates

A couple hits since last update:

1.  The back-test of the red trend lines occurred.

2.  The April 23 upside target was ~captured.

SPX is in the ballpark of another POSSIBLE resistance zone, but so far, bulls have been lumbering right through all of those.  And that successful back-test of the breakout is not helpful to bears.  Every now and then, though, you will see a successful back-test that leads to one more push which then falters, so it's not a slam dunk just for bulls just yet... but it's still encouraging for them.

NYA is back to its black line:

And INDU has finally gotten on the same page as everyone else:

In conclusion, keep in mind that the most bullish possible pattern here would be a bull nest to new highs.  And while the market isn't quite behaving right for that at the moment (there should be more upside momentum), that can change in a heartbeat.  On the flip side, it does keep open the option that we're dealing with something else -- at least, as of this second, that's an option.  But either way, bears aren't doing anything to get them excited or even really have them do anything other than watch and wait for an impulsive turn -- again, at least, for now.  Trade safe.

SPX and INDU: Some Details on the Near Term

The market hasn't done much in recent days, so not a lot to add to the big picture, but I do want to call attention to some things on the near-term SPX chart:

And INDU still remains as something of a thorn in bulls' sides for now:

Nothing new has happened beyond that.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, and INDU: Mixed Market

Since last update, SPX has sneaked over its potential trend resistance lines, so bears have a brief window to reverse this or else they probably need to await an impulsive decline (because the pattern does allow for an ongoing rally if there's no reversal soon):

The two markets keeping this from being a slam-dunk for bulls (yet) are INDU and COMPQ.  INDU first:

And COMPQ, which still hasn't back-tested its long-term uptrend break:

In conclusion, SPX has not gone bears way and they need to be aware of that.  They probably need a reversal fairly soon to keep their near-term (and perhaps even intermediate term) hopes alive.  Trade safe.

SPX, COMPQ, NYA: Upside Inflection Zone

So the market has now bounced from its downside trend support zone all the way up to its upside trend resistance zone.  We should pay attention to the winner of this battle:

Note that COMPQ is still a ways from getting back into its uptrend... but again, don't ignore it if it DOES get back in:

Finally, NYA is also in the zone of potential resistance (from here to horizontal black):

In conclusion, if bears still have gas in the tank, they probably want to mount a defense of these zones.  If they can't, then we should not ignore that -- so let's see how the market handles this.  Trade safe.

SPX and NYA: Fun

Last update noted that even though the market had perfectly followed the ~10-day-long projected triangle path, that didn't guarantee that we were in that particular triangle (the market can be funny this way -- sometimes you can "see" what it wants to do, but WHY it wants to do that is up for grabs).

There's not much a bear can do in such a situation, really, other than cover once the market moved back above the lower boundary of the triangle (which was the first warning that something else may be afoot).

IF this is still to be a triangle (still unclear), then here's what it would need to do:

Note that the last rally leg (on the Trump tariff announcement) was so large that it's not impossible for the current rally to be WAVE 5 OF C of a corrective bounce off the crash low.  That said, it's very hard to trade that, so I wouldn't be inclined to front-run it personally.  If the current leg breaks 5482 and then forms an impulsive decline, then I might take a small stab at it in that case.  Not trading advice, just how I treat ambiguous things like this.

I concluded Monday's update by reiterating the following warning (then I'd like to highlight that chart again):

As we can see on the chart above, as of right now, SPX is still above its long-term uptrend lines -- meaning (as I mentioned last week) it is still technically in an uptrend, unless and until bears can sustain trade and closes at lower prices.  Once again, the recent low is an inflection zone that extends a bit lower (so another minor new low would still be within the inflection) -- because we're still at three waves down so far. 

Finally, I want to update the NYA chart with more detail.  I talked about this pattern in broad strokes last month, but here it is in all its glory:

In conclusion, the jury is still out on whether this recent "tariff crash" was just another bull market correction or the start of something more serious.  Bears still need to sustain trade and closes below the long-term uptrend on the second chart to really get things shifted firmly into their court.  Trade safe.

SPX Update: Triangle or Not, This Chart Was a Winner

So, on April 10, I offered the following chart:

Here's what the market has done since then:

As we can see in the long annotation in the chart above, the market does still have some ways to make the triangle (if that is what this is) more annoying.

But either way, I can't really predict a 10 day stretch much better than that.  So whether this turns out to be a different triangle or not a triangle at all, the chart from April 10 is a major win.

Long-term, nothing has changed:

In conclusion, the market's been range-bound for a while, so there's nothing to add to recent updates, and I recommend refreshing your memory of those if need be.  

Note that in the event this is a COMPLETED triangle, then the expectation would be for a rapid drop down toward 4600-4700, then a brutal short-covering rally that takes us right back toward the 5200s.

Trade safe.

SPX Update

On April 10, I proposed that the market might go into a holding pattern (a triangle) for a bit -- which it's since done.  Whether that holding pattern IS a triangle (vs. many other remaining options) remains to be seen -- but it was directionally correct either way:

Next up, we'll just look at the stripped-down very long term SPX chart:

As we can see on the chart above, as of right now, SPX is still above its long-term uptrend lines -- meaning (as I mentioned last week) it is still technically in an uptrend, unless and until bears can sustain trade and closes at lower prices.  Once again, the recent low is an inflection zone that extends a bit lower (so another minor new low would still be within the inflection) -- because we're still at three waves down so far.  We'll see if either side can get anything going again, or if we are indeed in a triangle.  In the event this is a triangle, note that it's a continuation pattern for the decline that projects down to the old ~4700 target zone, perhaps a little bit lower (~4600) -- probably followed immediately by a blistering short-covering rally.  Trade safe.