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Monday, November 28, 2011

US Dollar Update: More Upside for the Dollar?

[NOTE:  The Weekend SPX Update is posted immediately below]

[My long-term dollar count/charts can be found in this article (which also nailed the bottom last month)]

This is a quick dollar update, since so many markets are tied to the dollar right now. 

The dollar appears to have completed a five wave sequence on Friday, to wrap up wave (3).  It is now due to correct down toward the 78.880-78.925 level in wave (4).  In a perfect world, dollar bulls would see a rally develop from this zone, which would carry the dollar up toward the 80.5-81 level.

The critical level to watch is the wave (1) high at 78.605 -- a break there would indicate something else is going on.  A break of 77.840 would be a fatal blow to the preferred count, and would indicate the alternate count was likely to be unfolding, which would see the dollar attempt a retest of the recent lows at the wave ii/Alt: A label.

The preferred count agrees with the current equity market counts, which indicate a correction is due for both markets.  For equities, that means a brief rally, and for the dollar, a brief decline.  The dollar will hopefully provide some early warning if the equities rally is to become more than a correction --  but currently, there is nothing to indicate any medium or long term trend changes in either market.  Trade safe.


3 comments:

  1. Looks like eur may have made ST double top at retest of 1.34

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  2. Probably just best to keep the comment thread over on the SPX update, since that's where everyone else is.  :)

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  3. Dollar also looks like it's trying to build a base.  Don't make me keep coming over to this thread!  lol  :D

    But yeah, let's continue everything on the SPX thread.

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