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Friday, March 28, 2025

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: The Battle Lines Have Now Been Drawn

Last update noted that most markets had reached their first upside targets/inflection zones and the market has since stalled.  We'll start with INDU, which captured dead-center of its first target zone:


SPX next, which remains stalled at its red resistance line:


And finally, two looks at COMPQ, staring with the near-term, where we can see another wave down would make for five waves down:


And then COMPQ's bigger picture, which suggests lower prices would break the long-term uptrend:


In conclusion, if bears can sustain trade and closes below this month's low, it would suggest two main options:

  1. --As seen on COMPQ, that new low could be a fifth wave, which (in its most bullish form) wouldn't be devastating, just scary (see blue (5)).  If it were to extend, it could be devastating.
  2. --In SPX, the new low (if it occurs) could be either a small fifth, or the start of a LARGER DEGREE third wave.  If it were the latter, it could, again, be quite devastating.
  3. --So, the moral of the story is, bulls should be VERY CAUTIOUS in the event of sustained trade and closes below the monthly low.  Yes, it could bounce shortly thereafter (in the event of the fifth wave mentioned at the start)... but it would have the potential to become a relentless decline, in the event of the third wave or extended fifth.
All that said, the first thing bears need to do is BREAK that low.  And while that's looking "possible" right now, it's absolutely not a given yet.  So: the flip side of the coin is that bears should be very cautious in the event that the market sustains trade north of this week's high.  

Trade safe.

p.s.-- I'm continuing to aggregate -- and add new material -- at Substack:

(This one was pretty popular upon original release. If you remember it from its original 2013 release, then you're officially an "old timer" 'round these here parts.)


Three psychological traps that quietly sabotage everyone -- and how to break free before they break you.


Wednesday, March 26, 2025

SPX, NYA, INDU: First Upside Targets Captured

Since last update, the market has performed exactly as expected, with INDU and SPX both reaching their first target zones:


INDU:


INDU's slightly larger chart still suggests possible problems for bears, who will need to break the March low to get themselves back in the game:


Finally, NYA (pronounced "enya" or "nyaaah," depending on whether you're north or south of the Mason Dixon line) continues to look like three large waves down:



In conclusion, as we can see most clearly on that final chart, if bears can't break below the March lows, then the structure favors this year's dual legs down as being an ABC.  That said, in the event that bears DID break below the March lows from here, particularly on accelerating momentum, then look out below, as we could be dealing with a large bear nest.  But for now, bullls have held things together right where they needed to.  Trade safe.

Monday, March 24, 2025

INDU, SPX, COMPQ, NYA, Gold: Bulls Still in the Game

Exactly a week ago (and in each update since), I warned bears that it was a good time to start being cautious, and today we'll see why (because I could see a week ago what problems it might create if we got HERE).  Now, the charts took longer than usual tonight (or "this morning" for everyone who doesn't live on an island in the middle of the Pacific) so now I have to rush and hope I don't forget... whaddayacallit... anything.

First up is whatever chart I pull up first:


Looks like I chose INDU's near-term chart, which is a great place to start and build our thesis from.  So we can see on that chart that it appears likely INDU has a bit more rally left in it (if not more than "a bit").

Now, let's look at why this might be an issue for bears:


Next is INDU's very long-term chart, to see if another bull run COULD be justified in the charts -- and it could.  Doesn't mean it WILL -- just that it could.



Next is NYA -- no change to the annotation:

Friday, March 21, 2025

SPX, INDU, COMPQ, NYA: Inflection Still Inflecting -- Here's What Bulls Need

The market hasn't done a lot since last update, but I still have a lot of charts (6 -- but there's a page break at the bottom you have to click) for you today -- so let's jump right into them, starting with INDU at the micro level:




INDU zoomed out a bit:


Next we have COMPQ, which got rejected at red again:


Next up, I'm inserting a page break (trying to get back to keeping the main page a little more digestible):

Thursday, March 20, 2025

Trading, Boredom, and the Psychology of Self-Destruction

[this is expanded from a piece I originally penned in 2016.  My efforts to aggregate pieces like this to my Substack page led me to expand upon the original piece; I then felt it had enough additions to merit "re-mirroring" it again here.]


The market’s solution to every problem you have is "take all your money."

If that doesn’t scare you a little, you haven’t been trading long enough.

Most traders think they blow up because they lack a great system. In reality, they blow up because they lack psychological armor. They make one bad trade. Then they chase another. Then they spiral.

The problem isn’t your system — the problem is how you react when things don’t go your way.

But one of the biggest enemies of traders (and maybe humanity in general) is not commonly recognized as such.

Most trading books or articles focus on either analytical/predictive systems or "trading rules in general" (while often emphasizing “lack of discipline” as the primary enemy).

But I’d offer that maybe the biggest enemy of traders often goes quietly unrecognized, as it slowly undermines our efforts: Boredom.

What’s the True Cause of Boredom?

Most people assume boredom happens when there’s nothing fun to do. But contrary to popular belief (especially among teens!), boredom has nothing to do with a lack of “fun” things to do.

Boredom comes about from a lack of productive things to do.

In my opinion, boredom is simply one of several symptoms that can develop from a feeling of general emptiness. And while that emptiness can be glossed over and temporarily hidden with frenzied "fun," it cannot be truly filled by vacuous activity.

That’s why we quickly grow bored again as soon as the fun stops: it doesn’t nourish us in any lasting manner, and certainly not in the way that truly productive accomplishments do.

Conversely, after a meaningful accomplishment, we can sit and rest for a while, feeling satisfied with a job well done. We can be doing “nothing,” but we are not bored — because the emptiness has been filled (at least partially) as our self-esteem has grown, our character has been enhanced, or some necessary task has been accomplished — or all of the above.

This is why "fun" works as a reward for productivity (after we're in the fulfilled mindset that accomplishment brings), but it fails when chased endlessly for its own sake. When fun is treated as an end in itself, the emptiness may retreat into the background momentarily, but it never truly disappears.

How Boredom Leads to Overtrading

The old expression “idle hands are the devil’s playground” almost captures the essence of the problem, but not quite. Because the problem isn’t “activity or lack thereof (i.e.- idleness)” — the core problem is that sometimes we can’t stand boredom, so we engage in activity purely for its own sake.

And sometimes “destructive activity” actually feels better than no activity at all (this is also a lesson politicians could stand to learn).

Many traders understand this dynamic, at least instinctively (whether or not they’ve ever put it into words). The problem isn’t that they’re too lazy to take action — the problem is that they can become addicted to trying to accomplish something productive.

And that leads to overtrading. It leads to forcing trades. It leads to bad decisions and, sometimes, to acts of outright desperation.

Is There a Solution?

Well, the solution may be to redefine our individual views of “productive” action.

But what do I mean by that?

Let’s start here: I’ve often preached that non-action can be just as important as action. If a trader has clear rules that prohibit action in certain situations, then they can derive a sense of accomplishment from merely showing the discipline to stick to their rules.

In other words, they can (seemingly paradoxically) obtain a feeling of accomplishment by doing “nothing” — because they have redefined “doing nothing” into SOMETHING. (In this case, not accepting entries that violate their rules becomes the “something” they’re doing.)

Yet this is easier said than done, because the market is always moving. So when one resists, say, a buy entry because it violates their rules… and then that (as Robert Frost might say) “Trade Not Taken” goes on to develop into what would have been a 1000% gain, it can and probably will feel like you did the wrong thing.

And that’s why this next section is key.

The Psychological Importance of Trading Rules

Everyone talks about how you need rules to maintain discipline, and that’s true — but you also need rules to defend yourself psychologically against the one (potential) enemy who knows your every hidden weakness: Yourself.

That may, in fact, be the most important aspect of trading rules.

Why?

Wednesday, March 19, 2025

SPX, INDU, COMPQ: Right on Target and the Next Key Levels

Last update noted that a bounce wouldn't be out of the question, and that's what we've had since.  Most interesting is how the bounce ran right to where I suspected it would -- INDU shows this most clearly.

INDU also most clearly shows the potential problems for bears, were the bounce to continue, so let's start here:



COMPQ ran to its red horizontal (its first upside target), then got rejected like a creeper on prom night:


COMPQ near-term -- note the thick black line:



And finally, SPX, which also tagged first resistance:



In conclusion, this is the first real test bears have faced in a while.  They probably need to hold the market below yesterday's peak, or things get a little sketchy for them.  If these noted key levels hold -- IF and only IF -- then all's well for new lows.  Trade safe.

Monday, March 17, 2025

SPX, NYA, COMPQ, INDU: Market Finally Does a Thing

The market has finally done a thing again, as both COMPQ and SPX have finally at least peeked above their respective crash channels.



COMPQ:



COMPQ long-term -- back above the long-term trend line, for now:



INDU:




NYA:


In conclusion, you may have picked up that the recurring theme I'm stressing to bears now is "don't get complacent."  It's very easy to feel invincible after the market has gone your way for a while.  But even if this is a fourth wave correction to the decline, fourth waves can get messy and complicated.  It's also not impossible for the decline to be OVER.  That seems like an underdog right at this moment -- but "underdog" and "impossible!" are very different things, and it is by no means impossible.  Trade safe.

p.s.- I've started aggregating a few enduring pieces, as well as publishing some new work, at Substack.  The latest piece is titled "AI and Robots Won't Take All the Jobs -- Here's Why."  If you enjoy the piece or my work in general, please "like and subscribe!"  Many thanks.